Sadly, in all the years we have known each other, Marie, I completely disagree. New ways of scenario planning are already here that overcome the difficulties of, and enhance, human critical thinking. I would be happy to show you how.
Hi Mike, completely disagreeing isn’t sad - it just indicates we have different assumptions. The good thing is that we both know we have, and that means we will disagree at times. I appreciate and am in awe of what you have done on your new site and it will suit many contexts, but my brain goes in another direction in the moment. Both approaches are needed in my view because we all have different ways of approaching our futures - the critical bit is bringing all those ways together. And as you know, I prefer to begin with how we think and imagine and the assumptions that underpin that thinking before we move to AI. I may be old fashioned and stuck in my ways and thinking, but that’s who I am. Here’s to more disagreement! Maree.
We both think the same way in that regard, Maree. I deliberately didn't mention AI because that's not hat I was talking about. Scenario planningbitself is changing regardless of whether AI is employed to examine the hundreds of possibilities tgat can now be generated.
The sense is we are losing the capability to have what many would still call brainstorming
The use of computing power in picking trends and patterns has been there for at least 30 years - the ICRC worked with Insead on this.
What is being lost are the inflection points, the decision points, where trends are totally disrupted and patterns require further data.
Here, the imagination also comes to the fore in terms of mindset - or challenging mindset in fact - to look at something new, invention rather than innovation.
Computing power will continue to grow - An altruism - and if we are not careful inventive free flow will be further stifled. The blended learning always requires inquiring minds otherwise we will not get sky blue pink ?
Hi Paul, I so dislike the word brainstorming now, but you are right. I think AI and computing power is useful when talking about trends in the present, less so for imagining and thinking about how those trends might evolve in the myriad of our possible futures. So the present is our playing field and we need to reframe how we see the present and how it CAN be adapted and changed if we have those inquiring and curious minds to see the present in new ways - and maybe find that pink sky. Maree
Thank you for this Maree. I have been observing with much concern in my own neck of the woods how futurists and "foresighters" (including some of our own Strategic Foresight & Innovation graduates) are using the foresight vocabulary but rapidly sliding into the forecasting mode. I believe that at the root of this phenomenon is the immense pressure put by clients on practitioners to tell them "what will happen" rather than what might happen. The current multitude of (singular) "Future of ..." are just a testimony to that demand pressure. We still have a long way to go in bringing the multiple-futures thinking into main stream.
One part of the problem is that many foresight processes still require substantial investment in time and resources to be done properly. I wondered whether AI might be helpful in certain phases of these processes. There are a few platforms claiming to use AI for foresight. I recently was invited to play with one platform. It seemed adequate for grouping many news items (strong signals) into specific categories of interest. However, when I filtered by weak signals, not much was there. Obviously, training an ML model on identifying truly weak signals hasn't reached a useful level yet. Might we (partial) retirees give some thought to that?
This really resonates with me Maree. And I would add that what comes before imagination (or lack thereof) is desire (or lack thereof). And this, in turn, is related to most people's disempowerment in the current system. If, at the core of your being, you feel hopeless and unable to change things, your imagination is unable to visualise what you might desire, what incredible futures might be before you, before all of us.
My view as to the causes of this is that we are still caught up in the Newtonian, linear paradigm. We need complexity science and chaos theory to be taught in all schools, kids need to grasp what tipping points and leverage points are, and develop an understanding of non-linearity. So they know that tiny actions can have enormous effects, and vice versa. This will empower and enable them. It will also fuel their imaginations.
Sadly, in all the years we have known each other, Marie, I completely disagree. New ways of scenario planning are already here that overcome the difficulties of, and enhance, human critical thinking. I would be happy to show you how.
Hi Mike, completely disagreeing isn’t sad - it just indicates we have different assumptions. The good thing is that we both know we have, and that means we will disagree at times. I appreciate and am in awe of what you have done on your new site and it will suit many contexts, but my brain goes in another direction in the moment. Both approaches are needed in my view because we all have different ways of approaching our futures - the critical bit is bringing all those ways together. And as you know, I prefer to begin with how we think and imagine and the assumptions that underpin that thinking before we move to AI. I may be old fashioned and stuck in my ways and thinking, but that’s who I am. Here’s to more disagreement! Maree.
We both think the same way in that regard, Maree. I deliberately didn't mention AI because that's not hat I was talking about. Scenario planningbitself is changing regardless of whether AI is employed to examine the hundreds of possibilities tgat can now be generated.
The sense is we are losing the capability to have what many would still call brainstorming
The use of computing power in picking trends and patterns has been there for at least 30 years - the ICRC worked with Insead on this.
What is being lost are the inflection points, the decision points, where trends are totally disrupted and patterns require further data.
Here, the imagination also comes to the fore in terms of mindset - or challenging mindset in fact - to look at something new, invention rather than innovation.
Computing power will continue to grow - An altruism - and if we are not careful inventive free flow will be further stifled. The blended learning always requires inquiring minds otherwise we will not get sky blue pink ?
Hi Paul, I so dislike the word brainstorming now, but you are right. I think AI and computing power is useful when talking about trends in the present, less so for imagining and thinking about how those trends might evolve in the myriad of our possible futures. So the present is our playing field and we need to reframe how we see the present and how it CAN be adapted and changed if we have those inquiring and curious minds to see the present in new ways - and maybe find that pink sky. Maree
Thank you for this Maree. I have been observing with much concern in my own neck of the woods how futurists and "foresighters" (including some of our own Strategic Foresight & Innovation graduates) are using the foresight vocabulary but rapidly sliding into the forecasting mode. I believe that at the root of this phenomenon is the immense pressure put by clients on practitioners to tell them "what will happen" rather than what might happen. The current multitude of (singular) "Future of ..." are just a testimony to that demand pressure. We still have a long way to go in bringing the multiple-futures thinking into main stream.
One part of the problem is that many foresight processes still require substantial investment in time and resources to be done properly. I wondered whether AI might be helpful in certain phases of these processes. There are a few platforms claiming to use AI for foresight. I recently was invited to play with one platform. It seemed adequate for grouping many news items (strong signals) into specific categories of interest. However, when I filtered by weak signals, not much was there. Obviously, training an ML model on identifying truly weak signals hasn't reached a useful level yet. Might we (partial) retirees give some thought to that?
Warmly,
Nabil
This really resonates with me Maree. And I would add that what comes before imagination (or lack thereof) is desire (or lack thereof). And this, in turn, is related to most people's disempowerment in the current system. If, at the core of your being, you feel hopeless and unable to change things, your imagination is unable to visualise what you might desire, what incredible futures might be before you, before all of us.
My view as to the causes of this is that we are still caught up in the Newtonian, linear paradigm. We need complexity science and chaos theory to be taught in all schools, kids need to grasp what tipping points and leverage points are, and develop an understanding of non-linearity. So they know that tiny actions can have enormous effects, and vice versa. This will empower and enable them. It will also fuel their imaginations.